Trump Tariffs & RFK Jr: What It Means for Supplements
Political shifts in Washington can ripple through the supplement industry in ways few brand owners anticipate. From tariffs on Chinese ingredients to changes in FDA interpretations of the law, the Trump administration and RFK Jr.’s initiatives could reshape how supplements are sourced, priced, and approved.
Here’s what you need to know — and what might be coming.
Key takeaways
Tariffs on Chinese goods could drive up costs for core supplement ingredients.
RFK Jr. wants to eliminate self-affirmed GRAS, which may slow innovation.
Drug preclusion (CBD, NMN, etc.) could be challenged now that Chevron deference is gone.
Brands need stronger margins to withstand supply chain shocks.
Future compliance may hinge on FDA approvals — slowing launches and raising costs.
Tariffs and the supply chain
President Trump has renewed tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China. For supplements, the biggest impact is China, where most of the world’s vitamin C, B vitamins, amino acids, and CoQ10 originate.
Additional 10% tariffs have been levied on Chinese goods (reports suggest some categories face rates as high as 100%).
China retaliated with tariffs of its own, escalating the trade tension.
Exemptions exist — some sources say 50–80 supplement ingredients are exempt, others claim hundreds.
What this means for brands
Smaller brands have little leverage. Manufacturers are unlikely to lock in pricing and usually pass increases along.
Margins matter. Brands that didn’t price with a cushion will struggle.
Raw material stockpiling is one option, but it’s risky due to expiration dates.
Global reliance on China remains the elephant in the room. Despite concerns about quality, cost has driven U.S. brands to keep sourcing there.
RFK Jr. and GRAS reform
RFK Jr. has directed the FDA to explore ending the self-affirmed GRAS (Generally Recognized as Safe) pathway.
Currently, companies can hire their own experts and data to declare an ingredient safe — without FDA review. Critics argue this creates conflicts of interest and weakens consumer safety.
If self-affirmed GRAS is eliminated:
Ingredient makers would need FDA review.
FDA backlogs could slow launches dramatically.
Supplement innovation may stagnate — brands may avoid novel ingredients.
Canada’s Natural Health Product system offers a cautionary tale: novel submissions there already face long queues and high scrutiny.
The drug preclusion clause
Another wildcard is the drug preclusion clause, which blocks ingredients studied as drugs before being sold as supplements.
CBD and NMN are prime examples — both studied in drug trials first, and therefore excluded.
The result: even safe, promising ingredients are technically off-limits.
Enter the end of Chevron deference. Previously, courts deferred heavily to FDA interpretations. Now, companies have a stronger chance to challenge FDA in court.
This could reopen debates over drug preclusion and other contested rules (e.g., how “natural” is defined).
Q&A: Trump, tariffs, and supplements
Q: Will tariffs double supplement prices?
Not overnight. But smaller brands may feel increases sooner because they lack locked-in contracts.
Q: Can I just avoid Chinese suppliers?
In theory, yes. In practice, China dominates raw material supply, including precursors for U.S.-made ingredients.
Q: Does GRAS reform mean new ingredients are banned?
Not banned, but slowed. FDA review could take months or years, raising costs and uncertainty.
Q: Is the end of Chevron deference good for supplements?
Potentially. It gives brands and trade groups a stronger shot at overturning FDA interpretations they believe are flawed.
Final thoughts
The Trump administration’s tariff strategy and RFK Jr.’s regulatory reform push create a mixed picture.
On one hand, tariffs and GRAS reform could raise costs and slow innovation.
On the other, the end of Chevron deference may empower the industry to push back on restrictive FDA interpretations.
For startups, the lesson is clear: build strong margins, vet your supply chain, and don’t assume today’s rules will remain static. For established brands, scenario planning around tariffs and ingredient approvals will be critical.
Calls-to-Action
Book a 1:1 Consultation (Startups & Emerging Brands)
Two focused hours to stress-test your concept, formula, claims, and sourcing strategy — plus concrete next steps to safeguard against tariff shocks and regulatory changes.
Enroll in SSET — Supplement Startup Essentials Training (Pair it with a consult for best value)
On-demand training that teaches you how to vet manufacturers, set testing and shelf-life programs, build substantiation files, and budget for regulatory hurdles. Includes our vetted manufacturer list.
Contact Us (Established Brands / Due Diligence & Retail Readiness)
Facing investor due diligence or planning an exit? We’ll audit your systems, flag supply chain risks (including tariff exposure), and package your dossier so you’re investor- and retailer-ready.
About Blue Ocean Regulatory
Blue Ocean Regulatory helps supplement and functional food brands launch and scale compliance. Core specialties include FDA/FTC label & claims review, substantiation dossiers, cGMP programs, manufacturer vetting, test & shelf-life strategies, and retailer/investor readiness. Our goal: build brands that last—and pass.